The Decline of the American Empire

As my wife will readily attest, I've been predicting the decline (if not outright collapse) of the United States (aka "the American Empire" or "the Great Experiment") by the year 2020. Depending on other world events (and on the precise definition of "decline" or "collapse"), I believe that this could happen much sooner but regardless no later than 2030. This position has been variously supported--either directly or indirectly--by many others, including Warren Buffett, John Sculley, and ... Igor Panarin, a Russian academic who made news recently by predicting the collapse of the U.S. by 2010.

My thoughts have been primarily focused on basic private concerns like, "if the U.S. is indeed collapsing, where should I raise my kids in order to position them (and their kids) for success in the new world order?" However, Panarin understandably takes a much more academic approach, and he even predicts how the U.S. will ultimately be divided among the remaining world powers.

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Given the fundamental economic breakdown in the U.S., the renewed (ongoing/heighened) tensions in the Middle East and India/Pakistan, and a rookie administration about to take over the White House, who knows what the next couple of years will bring? I often wonder what it would've been like to live in Rome (or in the outskirts of the Roman Empire) in the middle of the 5th century.

Western Spaghetti

Here's one of the most viral videos of 2008:

Windy Field Goal Attempt

As a sportswriter later commented, I have *never* seen a field goal kicker miss an attempt wide left and wide right ... on the same kick! 55mph gusty winds will do that, I guess.

All-Star Performance: "Money for Nothing"

For rock fans, it doesn't get too much better than this: Mark Knopler, Eric Clapton, Sting, and Phil Collins ... all on one stage playing Dire Straits' Money for Nothing. Sweet!

I.M. Pei Designs New Museum of Islamic Art in Qatar

Last month, I visited Doha, Qatar, just a week before the grand opening of its Museum of Islamic Art. The building itself was designed by 91-year-old I.M. Pei, who was lured out of retirement speficially for this project. The New York Times wrote an interesting piece commemorating the event, along with a photo gallery much better than my own photos. I hope to visit the Museum during my next trip to Qatar!

Video Showing Every Flight on Earth

Just a fascinating video to watch:

Can Humans Avoid Death by Old Age?

I can't remember when I first heard of Aubrey de Grey or his theories on anti-aging research or his Methuselah Foundation or his book on Ending Aging. However, I do know that thinking about his work has had a profound effect on me and led to some extremely philosophical discussions with a number of family members, friends, and colleagues. Here is an interesting talk he gave as part of the renowned TED Conference:

2008 Olympic Moments: Very Very Close and ... Not So Much

As I look back on this year's tremendous moments in sports, I think the juxtaposition of these two photos show the absolute dominance of Michael Phelps (swimming) and Usain Bolt (track).

Both photos were taken at the finish line of their respective gold medal races in 100m sprints. At this level of intense international competition, these short races are normally decided by hundredths of seconds separating 1st from 2nd from 3rd and from the rest of the pack.

PHELPS DEFEATS CAVIC

At this point, Michael Phelps was just getting warmed up on the way to his historic string of 8 gold medals. However, he ran straight into a buzz-saw of a world-class swimmer in Serb Milorad Cavic, who was outspoken in his desire to derail Phelps' hopes. Phelps (left) held on to win by 1-one-thousandth of a second, relying on the same recipe that would lead to his being crowned "The Greatest Olympian of All Time": incredible natural talent, superb training regimen, and an intense desire to win at all costs.

BOLT DEFEATS THE WORLD

On the other end of the results spectrum, Jamaican Usain Bolt simply obliterated the field--and the world record--by a truly incredible margin. Amazingly, he was almost out of the frame for this photograph, making the rest of the world-class finalists look like no more than decent high school sprinters. Tall and lanky, with a long stride more suitable for the middle sprints (200m and 400m), Bolt literally "bolt-ed" to Olympic gold and into the record books, taking both the 100m and the 200m in world record times.

I have enjoyed watching the Olympics since I was a little kid, but this year's Summer Games were truly memorable.

Lockheed Martin's MKV: Cool or Boring?

Putting aside for a second the primary purpose of this vehicle ("MKV" = "Multiple Kill Vehicle"), I found this video to be so cool from the perspective of advanced technologies. Unfortunately, my kids--who are so jaded by Star Wars special effects and video games--were totally bored by this "reality" ship. So sad.

Building the Space Shuttle

I always feel so inadequate watching really creative people "do their thing" ... check this out!

Animation: Building the ISS

Someone sent me this informative animation showing how the International Space Station has come together over the past 10 years (and hopefully how it will be completed). Enjoy!

Extreme Space Tourism

I could see skydivers (quite literally) jumping at the opportunity to "space dive" ... I'm just not sure about the ride UP!

Qatar's Sheikah Mozah

During a recent consulting engagement, I had to opportunity to learn more about Qatar, a Middle Eastern country about which I had previously known very little. As impressed as I've been with the accomplishments of the current Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, I must say that I've been even more impressed by those of one of his wives, Sheikha Mozah bint Nasser Al-Missned.

She has been a powerful force for social and economic change in her country. She spearheaded efforts to give Qatari women the right to vote, to hold public office, and to dress as they please. She has been at the forefront of Qatar's push to become a global center for education, innovation, and media. She has been recognized as one of the most powerful women in the world and as one of the most influential business leaders in the Middle East. All of this would be impressive on its own, but taken in the context of Qatar's adherence to traditional Muslim notions on the role of women, it is that much more impressive.

Here are a couple of interesting pieces on Her Highness:

Google Doodle for NASA's 50th Birthday

Unfortunately, I missed this yesterday, but a friend sent along this Google Doodle in honor of NASA's 50th birthday:

Hey, Leno: Here's One for You!!!

My wife--a lawyer--found this quite amusing when she went to use our hot-glue gun to fix one of the kids' broken toys.

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In case you can't read it, the warning label says: "Nozzle & glue will burn. Unplug after suing."

You just can't make up stuff like this!!!

Excellent Video: Making Money Online

A while back, someone sent me this excellent video of a talk by David Heinemeier Hansson, the creator of Ruby on Rails and a partner at 37 Signals. Although he focuses on Web-based businesses, there are some terrific lessons learned for all entrepreneurs.

Truly "Global" Perspective

I realize that this is only an illustration, but nevertheless it is a truly powerful image.

Surviving a Plane Crash

I'm not sure why they bother with the statistical analysis of "front seat v. rear seat" or "window v. aisle," when the color coding says it all: if you want to survive a plane crash, you should sit in an exit row. I guess if you put it all together, you should always fly in the aisle seat of the first-class exit row. Hmmmm ...

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Wordle

Check out this cool Web site for creating interesting word maps.

"We'll See" State of Mind

After listening to all of the recent turmoil in my life, a good friend of mine sent me this gem:

There is a Taoist story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit.

"Such bad luck," they said sympathetically.

"We'll see," the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses.

"How wonderful," the neighbors exclaimed.

"We'll see," replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune.

"We'll see," answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son's leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out.

"We'll see," said the farmer.

Virtual Collaboration on "Hotel California"

Last year, I wrote a post about how virtual worlds are increasingly becoming just as "real" as our physical world. In fact, I mentioned then how I managed to co-author my first academic article with two gentlemen who I never met because we all lived in various corners of the globe. Well, I recently came across this incredible video:



Never mind that The Eagles are one of my all-time favorite bands or that "Hotel California" is one of my all-time favorite songs. Also, disregard whether you think this is a good cover of the original song or whether you like the videography.

What makes this project so interesting is that the two performers--Jimmy Gelhaar and Bastiaan Zijlstra--managed to produce the music and video WITHOUT EVER MEETING IN PERSON. Jimmy lives in the United States (Denver) and Bastiaan lives in the Netherlands (Drachten), so they relied on Web-enabled technologies to collaborate ... and never boarded an international flight to do it.

Gotta love the power of technology!

Volcano and Lightning Storm

This is an absolutely incredible photo taken for a story in National Geographic News.


However, almost as intriguing as this photo is the online debate that raged on a discussion board that reposted it with an apparently technically incorrect title. The National Geographic title was "Chile Volcano Erupts With Ash and Lightning," and the discussion board's title was "Volcano Erupts During Lightning Storm." Apparently, the volcano eruption caused the lightning storm (a fairly common occurrence); the volcano did not erupt during the lightning storm (a fairly UNcommon occurrence).

I certainly acknowledge the need to ensure scientific integrity, especially for a discussion board whose tag line is "Truth, Justice, & Humar for All!" (emphasize added). However, why can't we just appreciate the skill of the photographer and--more important--the awesome power of Mother Nature?!?!

Bjorn Borg -- In Perspective

I just watched Bjorn Borg present the champion's trophy to Rafael Nadal for winning this year's French Open. This was Nadal's 4th consecutive victory at Roland Garros, an achievement last accomplished by ... Bjorn Borg in 1978-1981.

Last year, I watched Bjorn Borg present the champion's trophy to Roger Federer for winning Wimbledon for the 5th consecutive time, an achievement last accomplished by ... Bjorn Borg in 1976-1980.


It seems to me like these recent accomplishments by two of our current eras best tennis players only serve to highlight even more the phenomenal level of dominance that Borg exhibited in his prime. After all, it has taken TWO players to pull off what he accomplished by himself.


I fully realize that Federer has also won four consecutive U.S. Open championships, which no one else has achieved during the Open era. However, I believe that the slow red clay of Paris followed just a few weeks later by the fast green grass of England makes Borg's 1-2 punch just that much more incredible.

Driving the Speed Limit

During one 45-day stretch last fall, I received 3 citations for traffic violations: 2 speeding and 1 illegal U-turn. A few months ago, I received an official notice from the Virginia DMV informing me that if I got one more citation within 12 months then I would lose my driving privileges for 30-90 days. Since then, I have been driving like an absolute saint, consciously obeying every single traffic law (especially speed limits).

I have never felt more dangerous and vulnerable on the road.

Apparently, I'm not alone. This is a terrific video that shows what happens when a team of college students decides to drive 4 cars on a highway at 55mph ... side by side. Enjoy!

Knowing What to Quit When ... and Doing It!

Last year I read through a cool little book (80 small pages with large type) by Seth Godin entitled The Dip: A Little Book That Teaches You When to Quit (and When to Stick). While it self-admittedly contained little original ideas, the way in which common sense views were presented made it an extremely valuable read. Below is one of my favorite lessons learned.

While we must each seek out to become "best in the world" (according to whatever definition we choose), there are "Seven Reasons You Might Fail to Become the Best in the World" (p. 33-34):

(1) You run out of time (and quit).
(2) You run out of money (and quit).
(3) You get scared (and quit).
(4) You're not serious about it (and quit).
(5) You lose interest or enthusiasm or settle for being mediocre (and quit).
(6) You focus on the short term instead of the long (and quit when the short term gets too hard).
(7) You pick the wrong thing at which to be the best in the world (because you don't have the talent).

The most interesting part about this list is that for many (if not all) of them, you can plan ahead. With some forward thinking and insight, we can avoid either the wasted time of having to quit an endeavor into which we have already invested significant time/money/effort or the complete disaster of languishing in "The Dip" and failing completely.

Twitter Life Cycle

I can't remember where I found this image, but I thought it was SO spot-on! Also, it led me to find a really terrific (old) site by Kathy Sierra called "Creating Passionate Users." There is some really good stuff in there.


Anyway ... for those who have yet to experience Twitter, it is a simple application based on answering one single question: "What are you doing right now?" A true example of minimalism (to accommodate SMS updates, posts are limited to 140 characters) and viral community-building (you can subscribe to "follow" other people's "Tweets"), this micro-blogging phenomenon has simply exploded worldwide. If you'd like, you can even follow me.

Ice Hotel

I came across this phenomenon a while back and thought it was really cool (literally!): ice hotels!


The original seems to be in Sweden, but they can now be found all over the world. Essentially, each winter they build a new hotel completely out of ice. As my son likes to say, "Cool!"

A Chance Encounter in Row 25

As a general rule, I don't strike up conversations with fellow passengers on any of my business trips, because I'm usually working during the flight. However, during my last trip from Virginia to San Francisco, a chance encounter in row 25 of Virgin America flight #468 had a significant impact on my life.

Upon taking my seat near the back of the aircraft, I said "hi" to the young woman already settled into the seat next to me. By the time we took off, she had already revealed that she was 23 years old, recently single out of an oppressive relationship, and on a one-way ticket to California to "find herself" and start a new life. Two of her friends had recently moved to San Francisco, and they would help her get back on her feet.

There was something intriguing about Amanda. She was certainly bright, lively, creative, and full of life, but there was something else. Perhaps her journey seeking self-discovery reminded me of my own trip to Mexico when I was 26 and about to start law school? Perhaps I now wanted to live vicariously through her since I knew that my various obligations would make another such journey impossible for me? Or perhaps I felt like I was glimpsing into my own future, since my daughter is already "9 going on 16"?

Whatever it was, we spent the entire flight "hanging out." We talked. We played video games on the Virgin America seat-back entertainment system. We even had a couple of drinks when we passed Chicago, since she had never been further West.

After a five-hour flight we began our descent into SFO, and she was glued to the window taking in every view. When our wheels skidded on the tarmac, I whispered to her, "Amanda, welcome to your new life." Almost immediately, she was sobbing, "You're right. This IS my new life." I think that the enormity of the moment finally caught up her, and she was overcome by the joy of her new-found freedom and by the dread of her unknown future.

Since it was on my way to the rental car pickup, I walked her to the baggage claim and wished her luck when we said our good-byes. As we parted ways I knew that I would never see her again. However, I also knew that from that day forward every time I sat down next to someone on an airplane I would think of her and wonder how her life turned out. In my own personal version of VH1's "What Ever Happened To ... ?", I will continue to wish her well.

Project Virgle

If it weren't for the fact that Google is notorious for its April Fool's Day shenanigans, I don't know if many folks would've put it beyond them and Virgin to be completely serious about Project Virgle, a mock project to colonize Mars. Both companies (and their founders) have the financial resources to take on such an endeavor and have also demonstrated the desire to reach for space (Google with the Google Lunar X PRIZE and Virgin with Virgin Galactic).

Perhaps in a few more years?!

"Research" v. "Innovation"

Recently I was at an event where I heard this terrific quote from Dr. Dimitrios Niarchos, Director and Chairman of the National Center for Scientific Research ("Demokritos") in Athens, Greece. It's probably an oldie, but it was new to me:

"Research" is the transformation of money into knowledge.

"Innovation" is the transformation of knowledge into money.

Well said.

Bullrun 2007 on "Jay Leno's Garage"

Last year, I was fortunate enough to join some high school buddies to participate in a cross-country car rally called Bullrun. The event featured almost 75 teams of exotic/luxury cars traveling from Montreal to Key West over 7 days.

One of the more interesting moments occurred before the rally even started. At the starting line in Montreal, two of the teams were discussing the 30-year old record for driving cross-country (from NYC to LA): 32 hours, 51 minutes. This was done in the 1970's during the Cannonball Run craze. One team bet the other $50K that they couldn't break the record, and the race was on. The two-man team drove from Montreal to NYC, launched on their record-setting effort to LA, and then managed to fly back to meet the rest of the Bullrunners to finish out the rally to Key West.

Yes, they broke the record with a time of 31 hours, 59 minutes. And yes, that means they averaged 87mph the entire way across the country (top speed of 160mph). Uh, no they somehow managed to avoid ALL COPS. (Why can't I do that?)

Anyway ... here's a recent interview they did with Jay Leno on his car enthusiast site.

Steve Jurvetson's Twin Loves: Photography and Rocketry

Here is a phenomenal venture capitalist and public speaker talking about his two favorite hobbies: photography and rocketry. Enjoy!

Did You Know 2.0

This is an updated version of the powerful conversation-starter presentation making its way around the Web. [I've been a huge XPLANE fan for years, so I'm partial to this version!]

When you're done watching, join the conversation.

Cool Image: Earth's Water and Air

I'm not even going to try taking credit for this image, the caption, or the accuracy of each. However, it seems like everything is accurate. Cool!


Left: All the water in the world (1.4087 billion cubic kilometres of it) including sea water, ice, lakes, rivers, ground water, clouds, etc. Right: All the air in the atmosphere (5140 trillion tonnes of it) gathered into a ball at sea-level density. Shown on the same scale as the Earth.

Dems v. GOP

At dinner a few weeks ago, one of my close friends mentioned something about the size of each party’s convention delegations corresponding to the relative size of each party’s voter registrations. I thought it was an excellent point, so I dug up the numbers. I actually found that she was not entirely correct, but in the process I found something else that I thought was interesting.

As of the 2004 elections, there were roughly 72M registered Democrats and 55M registered Republicans. She was right: the Democratic Party *is* bigger than the GOP.

However, the 2008 conventions will consist of 4,049 Democratic delegates and 2,380 Republican delegates. While the Democratic Party had only 31% more registered voters in 2004, it will bring 70% more delegates to its convention in 2008. Therefore, the larger convention size does NOT seem to correlate directly to the larger base of registered voters.

That being said … I think that these numbers show something much more fundamental about the Democratic Party. They don’t just believe in “Big Government” (as the GOP would have us think), but they believe in more “directly representative” government. Why do I say that? Well, according to these numbers, the Democrats will bring one convention delegate for every 18,000 registered Democratic voters while the Republicans will bring one convention delegate for every 23,000 registered Republican voters. One could interpret these numbers as supporting the notion that Democrats are 22% more “directly representative” in their convention than the Republicans.

I just love statistics … you can manipulate them to support just about any notion! ;-)

The 27th Amendment: What a Long, Strange Trip it Was!

Most Americans know that the "Bill of Rights" consists of the first 10 Amendments to the U.S. Constitution. Some may even know that there have subsequently been 17 additional Amendments approved by Congress and ratified by the States. Unfortunately, very few people actually know the connection between this last Amendment (the 27th) and the original Bill of Rights. However, I find it to be a fascinating story, both of from the perspective of political history but also from the perspective of how the American system of government was created and operates.

When the U.S. Constitution was originally adopted in 1789, there was significant concern that the newly created central (Federal) government would become too powerful if left completely unchecked. Therefore, twelve amendments were proposed specifically to create limitations and safeguards to protect individual citizens. Yes, that's right: 12. Ultimately, only the last 10 were ratified by the States during that early part of our country's history and became what we know today as the "Bill of Rights." The first two proposed Amendments were not ratified ... at least not then.

The first proposed Amendment pertained to the apportionment of the House of Representatives after each decennial census. Even though it was never ratified by the States, it is still technically pending ratification.

The second proposed Amendment pertained to the delay in effecting pay raises for Congress, providing that changes in salaries could only take effect after the next general election. Even though it was not ratified along with the rest of the Bill of Rights, it ultimately DID get ratified as what we now know as the 27th Amendment. As you can imagine, it was a very long (202 years!) strange trip.

Initially, the Amendment was ratified by only 6 States, which left it short of the 11 needed to be included in the Bill of Rights. Except for fluke ratifications by Ohio in 1873 and Wyoming in 1978, the proposed Amendment lay in a state of pending ratification until it was discovered by a Texas legislative aide named Gregory Watson. He made this the subject of an academic paper at the University of Texas at Austin (his professor gave him a "C"!), and then he later began a letter-writing campaign to get the Amendment ratified. When Alabama became the 38th State to vote for ratification on May 5, 1992, the Constitution gained its 27th Amendment. Subsequently, seven other States ratified the Amendment.

Yes, this could be seen as further evidence of how convoluted and bureaucratic the U.S. system of government can be. However, it also shows how flexible it can be and how much influence a single "common citizen" can have in shaping our democratic system.

Unbelievable "Battleship" Coincidence!

During the course of my life, I must've played hundreds of games of the board game "Battleship" -- first with my siblings as a child and now with my own children as a parent. In all of those times, I have *never* had this happen to me!

Last night, I played a game with my 9-year-old daughter, and I knew about mid-way through that something freaky was going on (yes, it was a full moon!). We confirmed it when the game ended and had to document it with this photo:


In case you can't see the coincidence, here's the breakdown:

Battleship: columns identical, rows identical
Carrier: columns identical, rows off by 1
Destroyer: columns identical, rows off by 1
Submarine: columns identical, rows off by 3
PT Boat: columns off by 1, rows off by 1, rotation inverted

I'm absolutely certain that we'll never get closer to independently setting up identical boards!

Sports Photos

My friend Pallavi Shah is a budding sports photographer. She's getting pretty good while shadowing some seasoned pros. Check out her growing portfolio.

China in Space

Today I attended an all-day conference on "Doing Business in China" and it put me in the right mindset to share this pic. I think it's hilarious ... in a sad-but-true kinda way.